NFL Survivor

Another week of carnage in Survivor pools is behind us. For those who are still standing, including our own Matt Brown and Matt Youmans, the picks get tougher and more stressful from this point forward. Survivor Sweat actually power-ranked Brown’s remaining entry fourth out of 660. Our deeply-detailed Circa Survivor dashboard from Jason Latus has a different opinion on the best remaining entries, but needless to say that everybody still standing is in a good spot, as the rise of Survivor marketplaces can lead to some guaranteed equity from a $1,000 starting position.

As noted on our dashboard, those $1,000 entries still alive are now worth an implied value of $37,905. That pales in comparison to what Circa Grandissimo entries are worth, as there are only three of them left out of the 77 that started. Each one of those has an implied value of $2,566,666. Surely discussions are being had among those parties about everybody getting something for their time and effort, while also keeping some kind of carrot to chase.

The goal here will be to continue sharing information on the contest as a whole, but also to share my insights on the week at hand. Even though this article “entry” was knocked out a while ago, I am keeping in mind the likely availability that remains, so as to present relevant notes and nuggets.

Once again, we’ll be using the Survivor tools from PoolGenius to plot out a course for the season and evaluate the pool picks each week.

Week 8 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Jaguars (-10) over Colts

Jacksonville is in a good spot here. The Colts are a mess and the Jags are off of a bye after coming home from London. This line and their win probability is basically right on par with Cincinnati, a team that has destroyed a lot of hopes and dreams in this contest over the years. Those who are shy about using Cincinnati have to think about Jacksonville.

In this article, I took the Jags in Week 1 against the Browns. Even though I’ve “lost”, I’m not repeating teams in the spirit of the contest and to keep the article information fair and transparent. A lot of people took Jacksonville in Week 1, but there haven’t been a lot of other strong places to use them since. This is easily the best one since that season opener.

Jacksonville is not a holiday team. Per our Circa Survivor dashboard, 37.6% of the remaining entries have the Jaguars available. That’s a pretty good chunk of the field and it sure does seem as though entries scared of taking the Bengals have a great backup plan.

Our Circa Survivor dashboard has the Jaguars at 76.6% to win, while PoolGenius has 79%.

Cowboys (-7) over Cardinals

It hasn’t been the smoothest ride for the Cowboys this season, but they did beat the Eagles on Monday Night Football last week to ride a little bit of a high into this week’s early kickoff against the visiting Cardinals. Arizona is probably a little bit better than many of us expected, but they’ve still allowed over 200 points through seven games and four of their five losses are by 12+ points, so they’ve been uncompetitive more often than not.

Arizona’s getting outgained by 1.5 yards per play on the season. They are 25th in offensive points per drive and 30th in defensive points per drive. This is an objectively bad football team, despite that random win over the Rams. The Cowboys have been outgained on a per-play basis, but continue to thrive on offense with 2.97 points per drive, which is second in the league.

Unfortunately, Dallas has a bad defense, but the Cowboys should get a little bit of a respite again this week against the Cardinals, much like they did last week against the Eagles.

As usual, though, the holidays are under consideration and Dallas looks like the top Thanksgiving team right now against the hobbled Eagles, who they just beat on the road. They get them at home on Turkey Day and are 72% per PoolGenius to win that game. They are 75% this week and also in Week 11 against the Titans, but you have to save them if the holidays are something you need to worry about. The Rams are the only other team with an implied win probability over 60% for the Thanksgiving “week” per PoolGenius.

The Cowboys are certainly an option for Circa Survivor players. In fact, 91.5% of the remaining entries have them, but many will save them for Thanksgiving in hopes of getting there. Our numbers have them at 71.8% to win this week, while PoolGenius has 75%.

Patriots (-7) at Dolphins

Road favorites in divisional games are often scary, but going up against Miami has been a really popular path in this contest thus far. Kudos to the Dolphins, who will not be the inverse of the 1972 Dolphins by going winless. But, they’re facing a much better opponent here this week than they did last week.

There is a pretty compelling case for taking the Patriots this week. Per PoolGenius, the only game with a higher implied win probability is in Week 18 with the Dolphins up at Foxboro. That is a long time to wait. PG has the Patriots at 60% in Week 14 against the Vikings and 63% against the Jets in Week 16. That makes this a pretty good spot to use them.

Even though the Patriots already played the Jets, I didn’t use them in this article. Our Circa Survivor dashboard says that 31.7% of the remaining entries have the Patriots left. So, again, for those scared of the Bengals, the Patriots or Jaguars look like very reasonable options.

Commanders (-6) over Eagles

This is the wild card of the week and a very, very interesting proposition. The entirety of the Circa Survivor field has the Commanders available. We have them at 64.5% to win. PoolGenius is more aggressive at 69%. This is one of two games where the Commanders project to be favored the rest of the way. They are not a holiday week team. They are off of a bye.

Is that a gamble worth taking? A team that is 1-4-1 on the season? I don’t know. I don’t think we’ll see a lot of people try it, but there is a method to the madness here. Again, as I’ve repeatedly said, with Circa Survivor rules, you need to take 20 of the league’s 32 teams to win. I do still think this contest goes the distance, even with so many entries already out. Sneaking through a team like the Commanders really strengthens your standing later if you can keep the Patriots, Bengals, Jaguars, etc.

This brings me to the weekly question in Survivor. Do I prioritize going 20-0 or 1-0? Given all the upsets and calamity we’ve seen so far, I think a shorter-term mindset is how most are operating. Those who are willing to embrace a little bit more gamble could go this route.

NFL Week 8 Survivor Pick

Bengals (-10.5) over Titans

There is a lot of PTSD for Survivor players with this Cincinnati team. The 2024 version lost in Week 3 as a 7.5-point favorite against the Commanders and also in Week 1 as an 8-point favorite against the Patriots. For good measure, they lost to the Browns as an 8.5-point favorite in Week 18 last season. They have lost six times laying a touchdown or more since Halloween 2021.

Alas, they are the optimal team to take this week. No holidays. Biggest favorite on the board. Off of a win and a recent bye week. Way better on offense. The Titans have mustered just 1.49 points per drive, which ranks 31st. They’ve only managed 4.6 yards per play. They are 31st in points and 32nd in yards.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are fifth in points per drive, four in points, 13th in yardage, and have scored on 47.5% of their offensive possessions. The Titans have scored on 29.9% of theirs. Even though Tennessee’s defense has played admirably despite the total lack of help from the offense, including 10 giveaways, the Bengals are at home, pretty rested and healthy, and should take care of business. Given that 84.4% of the remaining Circa Survivor entries have them available, this will be the most popular pick and it’s tough to disagree.

Our Circa Survivor dashboard shows an 82.2% win probability for the Bengals. PoolGenius shows 80%.

Pick: Bengals

Teams Used: Jaguars, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bengals, 49ers, Texans

Follow the link for the rest of our NFL Week 8 content.

Player props have become one of the NBA’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value beyond the standard spread or total. Each night, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board using matchup data, recent performances, and betting trends to find edges. Keep reading for some of the top OptaAI player prop projections for Thursday, October 29. Then, right below those, you’ll see the player props I’m personally taking. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts should be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.

Noteworthy Thursday OptaAI Player Prop Edges

Check out the OptaAI Player Props NBA pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.

DeAndre Hunter Over 11.5 Points (-120) vs. Pelicans

Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 14.71 points, suggesting these odds should be -388 — a +24.9% edge to the Over.

Donovan Clingan Under 10.5 Rebounds (-106) vs. Grizzlies

Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 8.66 rebounds, suggesting these odds should be -353 — a +18.3% edge to the Over.

Deni Avdija Under 5.5 Assists (-115) vs. Grizzlies

Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 4.45 assists, suggesting these odds should be -246 — a +17.6%% edge to the Over.

Thursday Player Prop Best Bets

Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record.

Darius Acuff Jr. Over 21.5 Points (-125 – 1.5 units) & Alt Points 27+ (+200 – 0.5 units) & Alt Points 30+ (+350 – 0.25 units) & Alt Points 35+ (+850 – 0.1 units) vs. Pelicans

Kings at Pelicans – 8:00 pm ET

I feel as though I have had a good read on the Kings to start this season, as I have successfully picked my spots with Domantas Sabonis’ player props. Well, even if tonight does end up being a high-usage game for the Lithuanian, I’m not sure there’s anything that can prevent Acuff from jacking up shots against this Pelicans team. New Orleans is currently tied for sixth in the NBA in pace (103.43), while also being 21st in raw defensive rating (114.8). That makes this a dream matchup for Acuff, as he’ll get to play fast against a team that can’t really guard. The Pelicans are extremely weak when it comes to point-of-attack defense, and they’re also without center Yves Missi right now. Missi is the only source of rim protection on this roster. That said, if Acuff has his usual green light, this could be a game in which he actually scores quite efficiently. Combining that with his volume could make for a monster night. That’s why I’m being extremely aggressive in laddering this.

Late Additions

Nothing yet.

More NBA Content

Check out the Harwood Handicappers YouTube channel! I’ll likely be dishing out more player props every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday when I go LIVE on YouTube to run through each slate.

Today’s NBA Betting Trends:

The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 10/29. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings with Sacramento

Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs SAC)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home/away game scenario are 26-60 SU and 33-52 ATS vs. teams playing a 4th Home in 6 Days game over the last three seasons

System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at ATL)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether from how much rest they’ve had before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they handle injuries and workloads under schedule pressure.

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home/away game scenario are 26-60 SU and 33-52 ATS vs. teams playing a 4th Home in 6 Days game over the last three seasons

System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at ATL)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home game scenario were 28-37 SU and 24-41 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season

* ATLANTA is 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS (18.2%) at a home favorite of -1 to-5 points since the start of last season

System/Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs CLE)

* PORTLAND is 25-14 Over the total (64.1%) in their last 39 games as a favorite

Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-POR (o/u at 232.5)

Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(565) CLEVELAND at (566) ATLANTA

* Home teams are 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11 of the Cavs-Hawks series

Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs CLE)

(567) SACRAMENTO at (568) NEW ORLEANS

* NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings with Sacramento

Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs SAC)

* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the series at Smoothie King Center as well

Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-NOP (o/u at 236.5)

(569) MEMPHIS at (570) PORTLAND

* Home teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the Grizzlies-Trail Blazers set

Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-7.5 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:

In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 199-77 SU and 158-117-1 ATS (57.5%) run.

System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-7.5 vs MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:

In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 144-118 SU and 147-112-3 ATS (56.8%) surge.

System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR SACRAMENTO at NOP (+5.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.

Unusual shooting performance systems

NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 424-366 (53.7%) since 2021.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-POR (o/u at 232.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 367-369 SU and 336-392-8 ATS (46.2%) in the next game over the last six seasons.

System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-7.5 vs MEM)

Massive rebounding differentials

NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 116-80 (59.2%) rate since 2021, including 61-37 (62.2%) to the Over in the last 98.

System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-ATL (o/u at 237.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #10:

Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 125-158 SU but 156-125-3 ATS (55.5%) surge.

System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs SAC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 236-206 ATS (53.4%) over the last four seasons, good for +9.4 units of profit and an ROI of 2.1%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.

System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs CLE)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 570-514 ATS record (52.6%), good for +4.6 units of profit and an ROI of 0.4%.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs CLE), PORTLAND (-7.5 vs MEM)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 679-601 ATS record, good for 53%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +17.9 units of profit and an ROI of +1.4%.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs CLE), NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 vs SAC)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1744-780 over the last three seasons but for -310.98 units and an ROI of -12.3%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1337-879 but for just -47.67 units and an ROI of -2.2%. This 10%+ disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.

System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS ML (-238 vs SAC), PORTLAND ML (-290 vs MEM)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority has favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 558-464, good for 54.6%, +47.6 units, and an ROI of +4.7% since January ’23.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-ATL (o/u at 237.5), SAC-NOP (o/u at 236.5), MEM-POR (o/u at 232.5)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +7.5 (+1.8)

2. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+0.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:

Ratings Match: NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (+1.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +7.5 (+8.3)

2. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+1.0)

3. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+0.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Match: CLE-ATL OVER 237.5 (+1.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-POR UNDER 233.5 (-0.5)

2. SAC-NOP UNDER 236.5 (-0.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +7.5 (+2.4)

2. CLEVELAND +1.5 (+0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Match: NEW ORLEANS -5.5 (+3.2)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:

Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-ATL OVER 237.5 (+1.5)

2. MEM-POR OVER 233.5 (+0.6)

Every night of the 2026-27 NBA season gives us a fresh set of games and numbers to pick apart. This daily column digs into the best sides and totals on the board, using in-depth basketball analysis, betting trends, and our VSiN NBA betting splits to spot value. We’ll also be tackling these slates relentlessly on our live VSiN programming, which is why basketball fans should really consider a VSiN Pro subscription. Below you’ll find some NBA picks and predictions for Thursday, October 29.

MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!

NBA Best Bets Today – Thursday, October 29

Cavaliers vs. Hawks UNDER 238.5 (-105)

Cavaliers at Hawks – 8:00 pm ET

This total feels a little too high for these two teams. While Atlanta wants to speed things up — the team is currently fourth in pace (104.20) — Cleveland will do its best to try and slow this game down. The Cavaliers shouldn’t be looking to get involved in a track meet considering their big-man combination of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Hawks play a little smaller, so allowing them to play uptempo could be a death sentence.

These teams also happen to be solid defensively. While Atlanta is just 13th in raw defensive rating (110.6), we know this team can defend at a top-five level. Just look at what the Hawks did after the All-Star break last year. Meanwhile, Cleveland is currently 17th in raw defensive rating (111.9), but there’s also another level the Cavaliers can reach on that end of the floor — even with the poor defensive duo of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden.

The Under is also 3-2 when the Hawks play three games in five nights under Quin Snyder. And the Under has come in more often than the Over when Kenny Atkinson’s Cavaliers are underdogs — and that’s also true on the road.

Grizzlies +7.5 (-105 – 1.5 units) vs. Trail Blazers

Grizzlies at Blazers – 10:00 pm ET

I’m really starting to come around on Portland. Two nights ago, I put in a future on Micah Nori to win Coach of the Year at 16-1, and the team’s advanced stats speak for themselves. The Blazers are currently No. 1 in the NBA in points per 100 possessions (132.9), and their 112.2 points allowed per 100 is just fine considering how good the group is offensively. So far, Damian Lillard looks like Damian Lillard, Ja Morant is fitting in extremely well, and Deni Avdija continues to look like an All-Star. Meanwhile, Nori has everyone moving with purpose, all the role players are chipping in, and the vibes look immaculate.

The issue with this game is that Memphis has also been damn good. The Grizzlies don’t have an Efficiency Differential like the +20.7 of the Blazers, but they’re No. 6 in the NBA (+8.2) and rank seventh in both points (115.3) and points allowed per 100 possessions (107.1). That type of balance makes it hard to envision Memphis getting beat thoroughly, especially after two full days of rest. Under Tuomas Iisalo, the Grizzlies are 9-5 against the spread when playing with two days rest, and they’re also pretty good about being stuck on the road for a while. Since Iisalo took over, Memphis is 8-2 ATS when playing a third road game in five days.

As far as the actual basketball goes, I like that the Grizzlies have a monster in Zach Edey to go to war with Donovan Clingan inside. Not many teams have centers with Clingan’s size, but Memphis happens to have one who plays both ends of the floor at a higher level than he does. Also, while it might seem like Ty Jerome is due to slow down in the near future, he’s capable of cooking all the non-Jrue Holiday backcourt players on this Blazers team. And not only will he put up his own numbers, he’ll also tire them out by making them guard.

Our VSiN matchup pages also have Memphis +7.5 as a massive value. Steve Makinen has the Grizzlies winning 116.9 to 116.2, meaning he has Memphis with an estimated line of -0.7. That’s way off from where Vegas has it.

Added Plays (Late Picks, Parlays, Teasers, Futures)

Nothing yet.

Head over to the Hardwood Handicappers YouTube channel for some more analysis!

NFL First Touchdown

The Saints, Giants, 49ers, and Texans are all idle this week, which means we are without one of the best teams when it comes to scoring the first touchdown and also one of the worst. With bye weeks, the percentages have gotten a little wonky, as some teams have played six games and some have played seven, but it’ll all even out in the end.

Before digging into Week 8, let’s look back at Week 7. I like to track first team TDs by position to see if there are any league-wide trends we can pick up on in terms of red-zone usage. The number in parentheses is how many we’ve had this season by position.

QB: 2 (12)

RB: 8 (76)

WR: 8 (72)

TE: 9 (38)

D/ST: 0 (3)

No TD: 1 (13)

I felt like seven first team TDs for the TE position two weeks ago was tops for the season, but I know for sure that nine is. Tight ends really had a big day in this department, sort of following a trend we saw last season when that position was on a torrid pace, but fell apart late. We’ll see if that’s the case this season. It should be noted that some of the usual suspects were involved, but also Nick Muse, Davis Allen, and Mason Taylor, so some backup and third-string TEs got lost by the opposing defenses.

As far as the frequent flyer list, we added Jonathan Taylor, Mike Gesicki, Bucky Irving, and CeeDee Lamb to the group. JSN moved up to four first team TDs.

In terms of Week 7 red-zone efficiency, we saw about a 56% success rate, on par with most weeks for this season. There have been 419 red-zone TD this season out of 545 total touchdowns.

You can see the weekly breakdown and year-to-date results here.

We saw 10 first team TDs on the opening possession, a big upgrade from last week. That also tied for the most of the season with Week 1, where teams had a ton of time to prep for their first opponent. We’re up to 54 for the season, with 10-6-7-7-9-5-10 from Weeks 1 through 7.

This is helpful info for the First Touchdown Scorer market, but also when betting first quarters and first halves. Some coaches are better with the scripted drive than others. Also, I track whether or not a team scored on its first possession in the First Touchdown Scorer spreadsheet, put together by our Executive Producer Stephanie Kamerschak, who did this article the first few seasons for us.

2026 First Touchdown (FTD) by Team

The Packers are no longer perfect for the season, so we have zero 100% teams and zero 0% teams. Four teams have scored the first TD six times and four teams have scored the first TD just once. Ironically, the Lions were just 1-for-5 on the season and they scored the first TD against the Packers last week.

Some nuggets from Week 7:

- 15 of the 27 first team TD scorers were first-timers for this season; the Chiefs did not score a TD

- The first possession scorers? Ravens, Lions (first time), Colts, Dolphins, Giants, Jets, Eagles (first time), 49ers, Bucs, Titans (first time)

- With those three first-timers, the only teams not to score on their first possession are the Browns, Broncos, Rams, Vikings, and Saints

- The Bears started 0/2, but are 4/5 over the last five games; so have the Steelers

- The Broncos are 3/3 since Sean Payton took over calling plays

- The Lions scored the first TD for the first time since Week 1

- The Vikings have not scored an offensive TD for the first TD of the game; the lone time they did it was a D/ST score

- The 49ers started 0/1 and are 6/6 since, including four TD on their first possession

With that, let’s get to the Week 8 action and look at some best bets. I’ll be using DraftKings odds because they’re widely available, but SHOP AROUND for the best prices. Sportsbooks are all over the place on the FTD market, and the onus is on you to get as much bang for your buck as possible

NFL Week 8 Schedule and FTD Rates from 2026

Panthers (66.7%) at Packers (85.7%) – Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

—

Vikings (16.7%) at Lions (33.3%) – Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Raiders (57.1%) at Jets (42.9%)

Cardinals (42.9%) at Cowboys (42.9%)

Falcons (42.9%) at Buccaneers (42.9%)

Ravens (57.1%) at Bills (16.7%)

Colts (85.7%) at Jaguars (83.3%)

Titans (42.9%) at Bengals (50%)

Browns (14.3%) at Steelers (57.1%)

—

Chargers (16.7%) at Rams (85.7%) – 4:05 p.m. ET

—

Chiefs (50%) at Broncos (42.9%) – 4:25 p.m. ET

Patriots (71.4%) at Dolphins (33.3%)

—

Eagles (42.9%) at Commanders (33.3%) – 8:20 p.m. ET

—

Bears (57.1%) at Seahawks (42.9%) – Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Remember, while the purpose of this article is ultimately to try and pick the first touchdown scorer, this type of intel can help with first quarter and first half betting, plus live betting, so don’t be afraid to use it in that context.

NFL Week 8 First Touchdown Predictions

Lines current at time of publish

Remember – these are first TD odds for the game; you can also use all of the info in this weekly article to bet first team TD at your preferred sportsbook as well.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Germie Bernard +1200, Pat Freiermuth +1400

The Steelers have done well in this area recently and did score the first TD when these two teams met on Thursday Night Football a few weeks back. It was Roman Wilson who had the first TD in that game and it was actually his second straight week scoring the first TD. Unfortunately, Wilson got one target in Week 5 against the Colts and that was it, as he is on IR.

Since Wilson went down, Bernard leads WR with four red-zone targets, while DK Metcalf has three. The Browns have only allowed four rushing TD against 11 passing TD, so I’m looking away from Jaylen Warren, even though he could certainly end up catching a pass and running it in. But, Bernard is the guy I prefer over Metcalf here, especially with the slightly better price.

On the Freiermuth front, he’s kind of fallen out of favor in the scoring areas to Darnell Washington of late, but Freiermuth did score Pittsburgh’s first TD against Kevin Stefanski and the Falcons and also had a receiving score in the first game against Cleveland. Perhaps he’ll be the forgotten guy in the scoring areas this week and moving forward.

Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers +800, Tre Tucker +1400

Michael Mayer has gotten a pretty decent workload this season, but he has not been used at all in the scoring areas. Mayer has two red-zone targets to eight for Bowers, with Mayer’s two coming over the first three weeks of the season. Bowers trails Trey McBride, George Kittle, Colston Loveland, Sam LaPorta, and Isaiah Likely in red-zone targets thus far. The Jets have only allowed one TD to a TE this season, but Bowers is more like a WR lining up at TE.

Tucker has been the most trusted target for Kirk Cousins thus far. Coby White had some targets early in the season, but Tucker has four catches on six targets in the red zone. He had a TD catch last week and had three targets and a TD catch in Week 6.

With the Raiders stepping down in class pretty noticeably this week, I think Klint Kubiak will want to start fast, especially with the calls for Fernando Mendoza getting louder.

New England Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson +475, Hunter Henry +1000

Stevenson is my favorite short shot of the week. While the Dolphins have only allowed three rushing touchdowns, they have allowed five receiving touchdowns by running backs. Stevenson has 24 targets and is tied for third on the team. TreVeyon Henderson only has seven and Corey Kiner, who has been used a bit as a runner in the red zone, only has two. So, Stevenson has two paths to scoring here in my opinion.

How’s this for a stat? The Dolphins have only allowed three touchdowns to wide receivers this season. A lot of that probably has to do with game state, as we only see 78 targets and 56 catches for WR against the Miami defense. However, they do not cover tight ends. Opposing TE are tied for fifth with 44 catches and sixth in receiving yards with 448. Only the Lions, Commanders, and Raiders have allowed more receiving TD by TE.

Henry and Eli Raridon have each gotten some work with five red-zone targets apiece, but Henry has caught four of them for 29 yards and two TD, while Raridon has caught two of them for just two yards and that Week 1 score.

Bookmark the First Touchdown Scorer Tracker, which I will update throughout the season.

Norwalk, Conn. —

Financial Summary

- Revenue of $1.87 billion, down 4.7 percent, or down 4.5 percent in constant currency1.

- GAAP net (loss)2 of $(1,015) million, or $(7.73) per share, down $255 million or $1.72 per share, year-over-year, respectively.

- Adjusted1 net income of $7 million, or $0.02 per share, down $20 million or $0.18 per share, year-over-year, respectively.

- Adjusted1 operating income of $124 million, up $59 million year-over-year.

- Adjusted1 operating margin of 6.6 percent, up 330 basis points year-over-year.

- Operating cash flow of $30 million, down $86 million year-over year.

- Free cash flow1 of $7 million, down $81 million year-over-year.

Norwalk, Conn. —

Xerox Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: XRX) today announced an exchange transaction (the “Exchange Transaction”) that will address approximately $174 million of its senior notes due in 2028 (the “2028 Notes”), extending those maturities to 2030 while reducing overall debt principal and preserving cash. The transaction represents another step in the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its balance sheet and reduce leverage.

“Following the open market purchases earlier this year, this transaction is yet another step that we’ve taken to proactively address our upcoming maturities. It addresses more than 30% of our outstanding 2028 Notes while reducing debt principal and preserving liquidity to support the business,” said Chuck Butler, chief financial officer at Xerox. “We appreciate the constructive partnership with our largest lenders and remain focused on strengthening our balance sheet and reducing leverage.”

Transaction Details

The Exchange Transaction is anchored by an ad hoc group of first lien lenders and provides for holders of approximately $174 million of 2028 Notes to exchange their notes for a combination of Xerox Corporation’s newly issued first lien senior secured notes due October 2030 (the “New First Lien Notes”), and shares of Xerox common stock.

For each $1,000 principal amount of 2028 Notes exchanged, participating holders will receive $690 principal amount of New First Lien Notes and $60 in value of Xerox common stock (based on a discount to the pre-announcement VWAP), or additional New First Lien Notes in certain limited circumstances.

The New First Lien Notes will be largely identical to the existing first lien notes due October 2030 and will rank pari passu with the company’s existing first lien debt. The transaction is structured as a cashless exchange, other than transaction expenses, and is expected to keep cash interest approximately neutral. It is expected to close on or about November 13, 2026, subject to certain limited conditions.

Upon completion, the transaction is expected to reduce overall debt principal by approximately $53 million and extend $121 million of debt maturing in 2028 to 2030.

This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security and does not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of any security in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.

Advisors

Lazard is serving as financial advisor to Xerox and Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP is serving as legal advisor.  Moelis & Company LLC is serving as financial advisor to the ad hoc group of first lien lenders and Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP is serving as legal advisor.

Forward-Looking Statement

This presentation and other written or oral statements made from time to time by management contain “forward-looking statements” as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and involve certain risks and uncertainties. The words “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “will”, “would”, “could”, “can”, “should”, “targeting”, “projecting”, “driving”, “future”, “plan”, “predict”, “may” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. The Company’s actual results may differ significantly from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management’s current beliefs and assumptions and are subject to a number of other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially.

Such factors include but are not limited to: applicable market conditions; global macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, slower growth or recession, delays or disruptions in the global supply chain, higher interest rates, and wars and other conflicts, including the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine; our ability to succeed in a competitive environment, including by developing new products and service offerings and preserving our existing products and market share as well as repositioning our business in the face of customer preference, technological, and other change, such as evolving return-to-office and hybrid working trends; failure of our customers, vendors, and logistics partners to perform their contractual obligations to us; our ability to attract, train, and retain key personnel; execution risks around our Reinvention; the risk of breaches of our security systems due to cyber, malware, or other intentional attacks that could expose us to liability, litigation, regulatory action or damage our reputation; our ability to obtain adequate pricing for our products and services and to maintain and improve our cost structure; changes in economic and political conditions, licensing requirements, and tax laws in the United States and in the foreign countries in which we do business; the risk that multi-year contracts with governmental entities could be terminated prior to the end of the contract term and that civil or criminal penalties and administrative sanctions could be imposed on us if we fail to comply with the terms of such contracts and applicable law; interest rates, cost of capital, and access to credit markets; risks related to our indebtedness; the imposition of new or incremental trade protection measures such as tariffs and import or export restrictions; funding requirements associated with our employee pension and retiree health benefit plans; changes in foreign currency exchange rates; the risk that we may be subject to new or heightened regulatory or operation risks as a result of our, or third parties,’ use or anticipated use of artificial intelligence technologies; the risk that our operations and products may not comply with applicable worldwide regulatory requirements, particularly environmental regulations and directives and anti-corruption laws; the outcome of litigation and regulatory proceedings to which we may be a party; laws, regulations, international agreements and other initiatives to limit greenhouse gas emissions or relating to climate change, as well as the physical effects of climate change; our ability to successfully integrate the Lexmark business and realize the anticipated benefits thereof, including expected synergies; and other factors that are set forth from time to time in the Company’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including the combined Annual Report on Form 10-K of Xerox Holdings and Xerox Corporation.

These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date hereof or of the date to which they refer, and the Company assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events or developments, except as required by law.

About Xerox Holdings Corporation (NASDAQ: XRX)

Xerox is a global technology company with more than 120 years of innovation leadership. We design, manufacture, deliver, and support print, IT, and digital services for nearly 200,000 clients worldwide. Our integrated, AI-powered portfolio includes managed and production print, document management, workflow automation, cybersecurity, cloud managed services, IT infrastructure, and collaboration technology. Serving clients from growing SMBs to 90 percent of the Fortune 500, Xerox supports leading healthcare, government, financial services, education, legal, retail, and commercial organizations. Through direct sales and a global network of channel partners, we deliver the technology, expertise, and support organizations need to operate efficiently, securely, and at scale.

-XXX-

Modules

Embedded Processing or Host Architectures for Cellular IoT Devices

October 29, 2026

Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

Rising memory costs and limited memory availability are shaping cellular IoT device architecture choices as manufacturers account for higher component prices. Increased expenses are only part of the issue. When a part becomes difficult to source, an engineering team must qualify a replacement and redesign the device around it.

Which company carries that work depends on the architecture. In a hosted design, the manufacturer integrates a host processor with the cellular module and qualifies the memory that processor uses. When either component changes, the manufacturer is responsible for modifying the hardware or software.

Embedded processing shifts more of that responsibility to the module supplier. When a cellular module has sufficient processing capacity and memory, it can run part or all of the device software. The manufacturer then has fewer external components to source and maintain.

By transferring responsibility for a critical component such as memory to the module supplier, device manufacturers can reduce sourcing and lifecycle-management complexity. They benefit from the module supplier’s greater purchasing scale, built by aggregating demand across multiple customers and vertical markets using the same memory technology.

Choosing between a separate host processor and embedded processing determines not only the initial bill of materials, but also which company carries the engineering work when components become unavailable or if the product moves to another cellular generation.

Many cellular IoT devices follow a similar pattern. A host processor runs the application software, while a separate module provides connectivity. External memory and power management circuitry support the processor.

This architecture gives the manufacturer direct control over the application software. Keeping that software on the host can simplify switching suppliers by reducing the amount of software that depends on a particular cellular module.

The manufacturer pays for that supplier flexibility with additional integration and maintenance work. Its engineers must manage communication between the host processor and cellular module, then qualify the external memory used in the host design.

If the selected memory becomes unavailable, the engineering team must qualify a replacement and verify its compatibility with the host processor. If the replacement is not fully compatible, engineers may need to adapt the software that communicates with the memory and revalidate the design.

Maintaining this architecture requires enough engineering capacity to evaluate and integrate replacement components. Applications that require substantial memory or processing capacity may justify that investment. For an application with modest requirements, a separate host may add more cost and engineering work than the design needs.

Every cellular module contains a processor and memory to run its firmware and connectivity functions. In some modules, the processor has enough available capacity to run the device software as well. This is embedded processing.

A module with greater processing capacity may cost more than one designed primarily for connectivity, and its memory faces the same cost and availability concerns. Running the application software on the module, however, may eliminate the host microcontroller and its external memory, reducing component costs and board space. With fewer external components, the manufacturer has less hardware to qualify and support throughout the product’s lifecycle.

Changes in module price or availability may still reach the customer. However, consolidating components within the module transfers greater responsibility to the supplier. If the selected memory becomes unavailable, the supplier must qualify and validate a replacement, not the customer’s engineering team. Manufacturers should therefore determine the supplier’s plan for long-term product support and migration if the original module or any internal component becomes unavailable.

Placing application logic inside the cellular platform brings the module supplier deeper into the product architecture. The supplier provides the development environment and helps determine whether the module has enough resources to run the application software.

Customers need a clear account of how the application can move across supported products and where a future migration will require adaptation. A credible supplier should identify which software can carry forward and describe the engineering work that remains when the platform changes.

Cellular module selection often begins with the radio technology. Engineers identify the required cellular standard, then compare the products that support it. That sequence can overlook whether the module’s processor and memory could also run the device software.

The architecture review should consider flash and RAM consumption alongside radio technology. Those requirements help determine whether the module can run the device software. Interface requirements narrow the choices further. A simple sensor or actuator may require little processing capacity, while other applications may exceed the memory or processing resources available within the appropriate module.

Customers beginning this evaluation should document:

The architecture review should also account for evolving application requirements during the product’s lifecycle. If those requirements change, engineers may need to reevaluate whether the module still provides sufficient resources or whether the application needs a different architecture.

Some manufacturers keep a hosted architecture to maintain direct control over the application environment. Others require processing capacity or interfaces unavailable on the appropriate cellular module. Technical requirements and the engineering work the manufacturer is prepared to support should determine the architecture.

That decision also affects future migration. Software developed for a supported embedded system may carry forward to another module or cellular generation, although platform differences may still require adaptation.

Ready to evaluate your IoT device? Get a Telit Cinterion Dev or EVK Kit

IoT products often remain in service through component changes and network transitions. Memory may reach end of life during that period, while a network transition may require the manufacturer to adopt another module family.

A common software environment can allow portions of the application code to carry forward when the module changes. Application engineers then address hardware or software differences that the common architecture cannot abstract across the two platforms.

The available migration path depends on the module portfolio and the application’s requirements. A replacement module must support the device’s connectivity needs and provide the right execution environment for its software. This work extends the supplier’s role across product generations.

Component volatility increases the value of precise migration guidance. Manufacturers need viable alternatives and a clear account of the engineering work each one requires. Selecting compatible hardware resolves only part of the transition. Engineers must also evaluate the application against the new platform’s interfaces and available resources.

Hardware consolidation delivers greater long-term value when engineers can migrate application code without rebuilding it for each module platform.

Telit Cinterion developed IoT AppZone for customer applications that run on compatible cellular modules. The platform provides a common software environment across major LTE-M, LTE Cat 1, LTE Cat 4, and 5G RedCap products. Customers write their applications in C and use common APIs across supported modules, reducing the amount of product-specific code they must rebuild when moving the application to another module.

AppZone provides an abstraction layer over the underlying chipset environment. This layer gives developers a consistent software architecture across supported modules while shielding them from chipset-specific interfaces.

Hardware and platform differences may still require technical evaluation and software adaptation, but the common software environment reduces the platform-specific work left to the customer’s engineering team. The same architecture can support manufacturers that use different compatible Telit Cinterion modules across multiple product lines. Once developers create an application for one supported product, they can reuse portions of that work instead of rebuilding the application logic for every compatible module.

Telit Cinterion also provides embedded application environments for products that run real-time operating systems, like ThreadX and FreeRTOS™, as well as Linux. Apps on Linux support applications that require user-space access, while Open Linux provides kernel-level access for more sophisticated requirements. Supported RedCap and 5G products use OpenWRT. The appropriate environment depends on the application’s technical requirements and the resources available on the module.

See our IoT AppZone Developer Resources

A hosted architecture gives the manufacturer direct control over the application environment. It also leaves the manufacturer’s engineering team responsible for qualifying external components and managing the interface between the host processor and cellular module.

Embedded processing transfers more of that work to the module supplier. The supplier manages component qualification within the module and supports the software environment used by the customer’s application.

Manufacturers should decide who will carry these responsibilities before finalizing the device architecture. The application’s technical requirements establish what the design needs.

Expleo schließt Portfolio-Neuausrichtung ab und verlängert Laufzeiten seiner vorrangigen Verbindlichkeiten bis 2030

Köln (ots)

Expleo schärft seinen Fokus auf Engineering-Exzellenz, Technologie- und Beratungskompetenz sowie industrielle KI, während die Verlängerung bestehender Finanzierungsvereinbarungen dem Konzern finanzielle Flexibilität und Planungssicherheit für die Umsetzung seines operativen Plans verschafft.

Expleo, ein weltweit tätiger Anbieter von Engineering-, Technologie- und Beratungsdienstleistungen, gab heute den Abschluss gezielter Portfolio-Veräußerungen bekannt. Diese sind Teil der Strategie, sich stärker auf die Kernkompetenzen in Engineering, Technologie und Beratung sowie auf industrielle KI zu konzentrieren. Parallel dazu trat die Amend-and-Extend-Finanzierungsvereinbarung (A&E) von Expleo am 26. Oktober 2026 mit einstimmiger Unterstützung der Kreditgeber in Kraft. Sie verlängert die Laufzeit des Term Loan B bis März 2030 und die der revolvierenden Kreditlinie bis September 2029. In Kombination mit einer teilweisen Rückzahlung des TLB aus den Veräußerungserlösen bringt die Verlängerung die Kapitalstruktur des Konzerns in Einklang mit seiner Strategie der Portfolio-Neuausrichtung und schafft Planungssicherheit für die Umsetzung des operativen Plans.

Walter Cappilati, Chief Executive Officer der Expleo Group, erklärte: "Das sind wichtige Meilensteine für Expleo. Wir schärfen unser Portfolio auf die Bereiche, in denen wir unseren Kunden den größten Mehrwert bieten: tiefgreifende Engineering-Expertise bei komplexen Systemen, fortschrittliche Technologie kombiniert mit industriellem Know-how dort, wo Qualität und Umsetzung entscheidend sind, sowie die neuesten Entwicklungen in der industriellen KI. Gleichzeitig verschafft uns die Verlängerung unseres Finanzierungshorizonts mehr Planungssicherheit, während wir unsere Strategie weiter umsetzen und unsere Performance stärken."

Die verlängerten Laufzeiten geben Expleo einen längerfristigen Finanzierungshorizont, während der Konzern seinen operativen Plan umsetzt und seine Kompetenzen weiterhin auf komplexe, qualitätskritische Programme für Kunden ausrichtet. In den Bereichen Luft- und Raumfahrt, Verteidigung, Automobil, Schiene, Finanzdienstleistungen und weiteren Branchen verbindet Expleo Branchenexpertise, strenge Qualitäts- und Prüfstandards sowie internationale Lieferfähigkeit, um Kunden dabei zu helfen, die Zuverlässigkeit, Effizienz und Leistung ihrer Produkte und Betriebsabläufe zu verbessern.

Über Expleo

Expleo ist ein globaler Anbieter von Engineering-, Technologie- und Beratungsdienstleistungen, der führende Organisationen bei ihrer Unternehmenstransformation begleitet und sie dabei unterstützt, operative Exzellenz zu erreichen und ihr Geschäft zukunftsfähig zu machen.

Expleo verfügt über mehr als 40 Jahre Erfahrung in der Entwicklung komplexer Produkte, der Optimierung von Fertigungsprozessen und der Sicherung der Qualität von Informationssystemen.

Mit seinem fundierten Branchenwissen und seiner breiten Expertise in Bereichen wie KI-Engineering, Digitalisierung, Hyperautomatisierung, Cybersicherheit und Data Science verfolgt die Gruppe das Ziel, Innovation entlang der gesamten Wertschöpfungskette zu beschleunigen.

Als verantwortungsbewusste und vielfältige Organisation setzt sich Expleo für integres Handeln und eine nachhaltigere, sicherere Gesellschaft ein.

Expleo ist mit 19.000 hochqualifizierten Expert*innen in 30 Ländern vertreten und erwirtschaftet einen Umsatz von mehr als 1,4 Milliarden Euro.

Weitere Informationen finden Sie unter expleo.com.

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Anna Limbach und Martina Kreutz

E-Mail: Communications.Germany@expleogroup.com

Original-Content von: Expleo, übermittelt durch news aktuell

CDU-Vize Breher hält Linken-Frontfrau Elif Eralp als Regierungschefin für ungeeignet

Aufforderung an SPD und Grüne: "Müssen sich fragen, ob sie diese Partei ins Rote Rathaus bringen wollen"

Osnabrück (ots)

Nach Meinung der stellvertretenden CDU-Bundesvorsitzenden Silvia Breher hat sich die linke Spitzenkandidatin Elif Eralp (Die Linke) für das Amt der Regierenden Bürgermeisterin in Berlin disqualifiziert. "Wenn Elif Eralp jetzt aber selbst Angst vor dem kriminellen Umfeld ihrer eigenen Partei hat, stellt sich ernsthaft die Frage, wie sie die Sicherheit der Menschen in der Bundeshauptstadt verantworten möchte", sagte Breher der "Neuen Osnabrücker Zeitung" (noz).

Hintergrund ist ein Medienbericht, wonach Eralp in einem internen Dokument Angst vor Hamas-Sympathisanten geäußert hatte. Zugleich forderte Breher die Berliner Landesverbände von SPD und Grünen auf, zu diskutieren, ob sie die Linkspartei "ins Rote Rathaus bringen wollen".

+++

ppe

Das autorisierte Zitat von Silvia Breher im Wortlaut:

"Ganz klar: Kein Politiker darf in unserem Land Angst um sich oder seine Familie haben müssen. Wenn Elif Eralp jetzt aber selbst Angst vor dem kriminellen Umfeld ihrer eigenen Partei hat, stellt sich ernsthaft die Frage, wie sie die Sicherheit der Menschen in der Bundeshauptstadt verantworten möchte. SPD und Grüne müssen sich deshalb fragen, ob sie diese Partei ins Rote Rathaus bringen wollen."

Pressekontakt:

Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung

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Original-Content von: Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung, übermittelt durch news aktuell