Week 9 College Football Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Wes Reynolds:
Here are my Week 9 college football best bets:
Maryland +2.5 vs. Illinois
Mike Locksley had the unfortunate distinction of being the first FBS coach fired ten days ago at Maryland after a 2-5 start. This week, the Terrapins are off the bye and facing an Illinois team that pulled off an upset as 10-point home underdogs vs. Oregon last week.
Illini backup freshman QB Michael Clayton II only threw for 84 yards (11-for-18) but did have 2 TD passes. Illinois did give up 426 yards to a struggling Oregon offense in its 21-10 victory. In fact, the Illini defense ranks just 131 out of 138 teams in Adjusted EPA/Play and are 132nd in Defensive Success Rate.
The Maryland offense ranks just 128th in Offensive Success Rate, but interim coach and co-defensive coordinator for defensive backs Aazaar Abdul-Rahim will likely not interfere much with the offense and let offensive coordinator Clint Trickett open it up a bit.
Illinois comes off an emotional win on Saturday and then announced that Bret Bielema’s father Arnie had passed away at 88 on Sunday morning. The Illini carried that emotion to victory last weekend, but it will be tough to duplicate the next weekend now in a different role as a road favorite.
Colorado -122 ML vs. Kansas State
After a 2-0 start, Colorado has lost five games in a row, including a 57-24 loss at Oklahoma State last week, where they actually led at halftime but were outscored 34-0 in the second half. It has been a miserable season in Boulder as the bloom is off the rose for “Coach Prime”. However, the Buffs have competed better in its home losses. Although they lost 29-7 to Texas Tech, they outgained the No. 12 Red Raiders 375-314 but were done in by four turnovers. Two weeks ago, Colorado had No. 13 and still unbeaten Utah on the ropes in the second half before falling 27-24.
Meanwhile, Kansas State lost 28-17 on the road last week to a struggling Arizona State team. Starting QB Avery Johnson missed the game last week and has been ruled out for this one as well. Backup Jacob Knuth, who started last week, is also out for this one. So now K-State is down to either RS sophomore and Colorado native Blake Barnett, who has only thrown five passes this season against FCS Nicholls State, or sophomore Dillon Duff, who has yet to see action.
Kansas State’s offense uses the QB to run a great deal, but if there is one thing that Colorado does well, it is to stop the run. The Buffs are 9th nationally in EPA/Rush.
Colorado has played the tougher schedule and is a bit more battle-tested. The program is a mess, but the effort seems to still be there. Tough to expect Kansas State to do much on offense here.
Indiana -20.5 vs. Minnesota
The No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers were able to rebound from losing to Ohio State and having its 22-game winning streak ended. But it was not easy for the defending National Champions, as they had to go into OT to win a low-scoring game 13-6 at Michigan. Indiana only gained 212 yards of offense, and QB Josh Hoover, battling a right arm injury, went just 8-for-18 for 81 yards and had just a 22.6 QB Rating, but did have the winning TD on the ground.
Meanwhile, Minnesota won its second trophy game of the season, defeating Iowa for the bronze pig Floyd of Rosedale Trophy, 13-10. However, the Gophers only gained 209 yards and had to win on a field goal at the horn despite having a +3 turnover margin. Minnesota basically out “Iowa’d” Iowa, winning by forcing turnovers and better special teams.
The Gophers come in with a banged-up offensive line with multiple starters out, and they cannot run the ball (135th in yards/rush at 3.76). The Indiana defense is very deep along the defensive line, as they have only allowed 3.47 yards/rush (No. 4 nationally). The Hoosiers will force Drake Lindsey to beat them by throwing the ball, and the Indiana defense has 28 sacks (No. 4 nationally) in eight games.
Indiana is playing its ninth consecutive game before finally getting a bye next week. The Hoosiers have been one of the nation’s worst teams ATS at 1-7. The Hoosiers’ offense has been sputtering of late and needs to get its running game going and Minnesota might be the opponent to do it against, as the Gophers are 101st in rushing success rate. This feels like a time where Indiana needs to clean some things up, especially offensively, and run out an opponent as it starts the home stretch of a run towards its third straight College Football Playoff appearance.
Oregon -3.5 vs. Northwestern
The Ducks, one of the preseason National Championship favorites, fell to 4-3 and scored only 10 points at Illinois. This week it was also announced that QB Dante Moore will officially not play the rest of the season after suffering a concussion on September 26th vs. USC. That announcement came after OC Drew Mehringer was fired after the Ducks offense plummeted towards the 100s in many metrics this season.
Now Oregon hosts a No. 20-ranked Northwestern team that has a great deal of confidence right now and has some legitimate CFP aspirations. Former Oregon head coach Chip Kelly, 46-7 during his four seasons in Eugene from 2009-2012, returns to Autzen Stadium now as Northwestern’s offensive coordinator.
Despite only scoring 10 points last week at Illinois, the Ducks did have 426 yards, its most without Dante Moore, and perhaps that is at least a sign of progress.
Has Oregon waived the white flag on its season? I am not sure that they have and am willing to buy low on the unwanted favorite here.
North Carolina +14.5 vs. Miami (FL)
Perhaps the theme of College Football Week 9 is “Lookahead Saturday” , and No. 1 Miami certainly falls into that category with the big game in South Bend next week at Notre Dame, which will likely be the Hurricanes’ first legitimate test of the season considering they have played a fairly soft schedule.
But first things first, as Miami has a primetime trip to Chapel Hill to face a North Carolina team that has been more competitive than most expected, considering all of the bad news within the program over the summer. The Tar Heels did compete with Notre Dame, beat a ranked Pittsburgh team on the road, and won at rival Duke. They were caught in a big sandwich last week after winning in Durham and then hosting Miami, as Syracuse never led until converting the winning two-point conversion to prevail 31-30 in OT.
Miami’s offense leads the nation in scoring offense (49 ppg) and total offense (551.9 ypg) behind two legitimate Heisman candidates, QB Darian Mensah and WR Malachi Toney. However, the ‘Canes have shown some vulnerabilities defensively, especially against the pass. Giving up 312 through the air against Gio Lopez and Wake Forest is one thing but allowing subpar QB’s like Clemson’s Tate Reynolds (295 yards), Florida State’s Ashton Daniels (298 yards), and Pitt backup Holden Geriner (268 yards) does not give much confidence in laying this number on the road.
USC +7 -120 vs. Ohio State
All week long, we have heard “it just hasn’t worked out with Lincoln Riley” from the same media personalities that said he would win multiple national championships after he was hired. Nevertheless, there is some pressure for him to get this one considering that it is not the Trojans that are the buzz football program in Los Angeles right now, with the Bruins out to their best start in 20 years at 7-0 and in great shape to make the College Football Playoff.
In comes Ohio State off the bye with freshman Luke Fahey, a SoCal kid from Mission Viejo, making his first start in the LA Coliseum in place of the injured Julian Sayin. There also could be a package for sophomore Tavien St. Clair, who is considered the better passer of the two, while Fahey is seen as the better athlete. Whoever is at QB will need to be good for the Buckeyes as Ohio State has not been able to run the ball all that well this season (84th in Yards/Rush; 125th in Explosive Run Rate).
Expect USC DC Gary Patterson to follow the Indiana game plan of pressing Jeremiah Smith at the line of scrimmage and having a safety over the top to help. The Heisman favorite did score a touchdown at Indiana but had his lowest output of the season with four catches for 68 yards.
USC had its lowest output of Riley’s tenure with just 7 points at Wisconsin last week. This week, Jayden Maiava may have an easier time, as Ohio State rates just 73rd in pass rush per PFF.
This is a desperation game for both teams, but especially for the Trojans to show that they can still compete with elite programs (Riley is just 5-15 vs. AP Top 25 at USC).
BEST OF THE REST
Florida International +14 at Liberty
Liberty, Liberty, Liberty has won six consecutive games and has covered five straight. However, it has been against one of the weakest FBS schedules. The combined record of Liberty’s last six opponents is 14-33 and includes a list of FCS Gardner-Webb (2-6), Ball State (3-5), Coastal Carolina (2-5), Delaware (4-4), who was down to its 3rd and 4th-string QBs, Sam Houston State (1-7), who just fired its head coach, and Kennesaw State (2.6).
FIU, at 3-4, is another team with a losing record, but does have a defense that ranks Top 25 nationally in both total and scoring defense. Fourteen points is too much for an overvalued Liberty team to lay here.
Nevada +23 at UCLA
Penn State -10 vs. Purdue
Fresno State +6 vs. Oregon State
For more college football Week 9 best bets and analysis, visit the College Football Week 9 hub, exclusively on VSiN.
