BOSTON – November 03, 2026 -- Only 54% of consumers trust that advertised Black Friday prices are genuinely lower than usual, and one in five actively distrust them, according to a survey from Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Promotion fatigue is also spreading. 22% of consumers plan to spend less or skip year-end sales events because they believe discounts are available all the time.
Shoppers have not raised the bar for a good deal. The expected minimum discount eased to about 30%, from 32% in 2025.
The findings come from BCG's sixth annual Black Friday Consumer Study, which surveyed 10,220 consumers across ten countries ahead of Singles' Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The report is titled "For Year-End Sales Events, Trust Is the New Currency."
BCG senior partner Nate Shenck, a coauthor, said "Retailers can't discount their way past that" and added that the question this season is how to earn shoppers' trust.
Retailer reputation and money-back guarantees top the trust ranking at 65%
BCG scored each factor by net trust: the share of consumers who say it increases their trust in a deal, minus the share who say it decreases it.
- Retailer reputation and money-back guarantees each scored 65%.
- Verified purchase reviews scored 59%.
- Clear comparisons between regular and discounted prices scored 58%.
- Real-time scarcity messages scored 8%.
- AI-generated review summaries scored 4%.
- Influencer recommendations scored 3%, the lowest of the factors cited.
Social media inspiration drops 9 points to 46% as AI gains in all ten markets
Social media as a shopping inspiration source fell in every market surveyed. AI rose as an inspiration source in all ten.
56% of shoppers plan to use AI this year, up eight points from 2025. About 86% of users find it helpful, and 78% say it raises their likelihood of completing a purchase.
Consumers trust AI most for price comparison at 39% and feature comparison at 37%
Transactional tasks, such as filling in checkout details, are still developing as a common use case.
BCG partner Jessica Distler, also a coauthor, said AI is already beginning to replace influencers as a go-to inspiration source. Retailers, she said, need to think as carefully about how their offers are found and verified as about the discounts themselves.