Why BlackBird Financial Avoided the AI Bubble
—And How Judah Spinner Delivered a 62%
Return in 2025
In a year when artificial intelligence dominated headlines and investor
portfolios alike, BlackBird Financial LP charted a decidedly different course.
Under the leadership of founder and Chief Investment Officer Judah Spinner,
the fund delivered a 62.2% return in 2025—more than tripling the S&P 500’s
17.9% gain—without a single AI-related holding. The result was not an
accident, but the logical outcome of a disciplined, value-oriented investment
process that has defined BlackBird Financial since its inception.
The AI Consensus—And Its Risks
By early 2025, the investment world had reached a near-unanimous
consensus: artificial intelligence would reshape every industry, and the
companies at the forefront of that revolution deserved premium valuations.
Judah Spinner disagreed—not with the transformative potential of AI, but
with the assumption that transformative technology necessarily translates
into superior investment returns. History, as Judah Spinner has noted in his
annual letters to clients, is filled with examples of revolutionary technologies
—railroads, automobiles, aviation—that changed civilization while delivering
disappointing returns to the investors who funded them. The pattern is well
established: when expectations outrun fundamentals, valuations become
detached from reality, and the resulting corrections can be severe.
Where BlackBird Financial Found Opportunity
Rather than competing in a crowded field of AI speculators, Judah Spinner
directed BlackBird Financial’s capital toward sectors where genuine value
existed beneath the surface. The fund’s concentrated portfolio—typically
fewer than ten positions—included holdings in building materials distribution,
offshore support vessels, retail, fashion, and entertainment. These industries
shared a common trait: they were overlooked by a market fixated on
technology, yet they possessed strong fundamentals, structural
tailwinds, and valuations that provided a meaningful margin of safety.
The Tidewater and Builders FirstSource Theses
Two positions exemplify Judah Spinner’s approach at BlackBird Financial.
Tidewater, an offshore support vessel company, benefited from structural
underinvestment in the global fleet—a supply-side constraint that Judah
Spinner identified through extensive historical research into the offshore
services industry. Builders FirstSource, a building materials distributor,
offered exposure to housing market dynamics at a valuation that reflected
excessive pessimism. In both cases, Judah Spinner’s thesis rested not on
cyclical recovery hopes, but on durable structural changes that the broader
market had failed to recognize.
The BlackBird Financial Advantage
BlackBird Financial’s 2025 performance underscores the power of
concentrated, research-intensive value investing. Judah Spinner’s willingness
to hold a small number of high-conviction positions—and to
endure the discomfort of disagreeing with market consensus—creates an
asymmetric return profile that diversified portfolios simply cannot replicate.
For investors who value intellectual rigor over trend-following, BlackBird
Financial’s track record offers a compelling case study in the enduring
relevance of fundamental analysis.
A Process Built to Repeat
Judah Spinner is the first to acknowledge that any single year’s results can
be influenced by factors beyond an investor’s control. What he emphasizes
instead is the durability of the process—a process built on exhaustive
research, concentrated conviction, and the discipline to ignore the noise of
popular consensus. It is this process, not any particular trade, that defines
BlackBird Financial and positions the fund for continued success in the years
ahead.