College Football Week 9 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:

I took college football Week 7 off to refresh both my mind and my data, as I called it, and it paid off in Week 8. My best bets (12-5 ATS) and Effective Play-by-play lines (34-22 ATS) both did very well. Even with the overall success, there were still some easy wins, some definitive losses, and a couple of games, as usual, that I thought I had the right side on but still lost.

As we head into Week 9, my season best bets mark is now 65-62-1 ATS (51.2%). Man, I sure wish I could flush that 5-14 from Week 6 away. In any case, the Week 9 slate looks pretty loaded, with a couple Top 25 matchups and some ranked teams hitting the road and playing as underdogs at unranked teams. I will be in Oxford, MS to take in the Auburn-Ole Miss contest so I am excited about that one. With that said, after poring through this week’s loaded VSiN College Football Analytics Report, I have settled on these games for Week 9:

Thursday, October 29, 2026

Troy at James Madison (Total 49.5)

You have to think that James Madison head coach Billy Napier gave his defense a tongue lashing after the 34-31 loss last week to Appalachian State. That unit has been pretty solid beforehand and even after that contest, is still holding teams 8.4 points below their effective average scoring totals. The Dukes are no longer undefeated and will have to fight hard the rest of the way to stay in the CFP picture.

Looking at that defensive metric I just showed, it that holds true, we should expect Troy to score around 17 points. Those are body of work numbers. With the Trojans putting up just 14 and 6 points the last two weeks on the Louisiana duo, I think that 17 number is overstated. Let’s go with 13. With a total of 49.5, do I think the Trojans can hold JMU to 36 or less? For sure. They haven’t allowed that much all year and in fact, are yielding just 24.9 PPG on average. This is a solid defense, and a team that tends to play at a slower pace under head coach Gerad Parker.

Getting back to JMU’s loss at ASU, teams coming off a road conference upset loss in which they were favored by -7 or more have been big Under the total teams, 67-49 (57.8%) since 2021. These teams’ defensive points allowed fell from 31.8 PPG to 21.7 PPG. In addition, Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 57-33-1 (63.3%) rate since 2015. There’s also over 90% of the handle and bets at DraftKings on Over and they aren’t raising the number.

College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Under 49.5 in Troy-James Madison

Friday, October 30, 2026

Tulane (-10) at Charlotte

Before Charlotte’s shocking 38-31 upset win at Temple last week, you could have argued the 49ers were one of the worst teams in the FBS. Does that game, one which seemed much overpriced, change anything for Charlotte in the grand scheme of things? To me, absolutely not. In fact, the victory could have a bad hangover effect: Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points after a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 32-50 ATS (39%) since 2010. The 49ers are just 5-23 (17.9%) ATS in their last 28 home games. Meanwhile, Tulane has been horribly inconsistent in this first season under head coach Will Hall, but as a program, it is 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) as a road favorite since 2020. Not to mention, AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 120-19 SU and 77-56-6 ATS (57.9%) in conference play since 2015. The Green Wave are 10-point favorites here. With Charlotte boasting just a one-point home-field advantage, my power ratings say it should be 18.6.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 10 points with Tulane at Charlotte

Saturday, October 31, 2026

Georgia Tech (+7.5) at Pittsburgh

The Georgia Tech-Pittsburgh game is one of the handful of contests on my Effective Play-by-play Ratings that show an edge for one team on the body of work numbers, but an opposite edge on the recent numbers. I believe it in this case, because Pittsburgh has been a completely different team since QB Eli Heintschel went out with the injury in the Virginia Tech game at the beginning of October. Including that contest, the Panthers were averaging 38 PPG. Since then, they’ve scored just 20.3 PPG in a three-game SU and ATS losing skid.

After getting blown out by Miami last week, they now face this difficult system against Georgia Tech: Teams that have lost their last three games SU and ATS, all in conference play, have gone just 64-96 ATS (40%) when hosting a conference foe in the next game. and teams playing in a home conference game after losing and yielding 48+ points to another conference rival the previous game are just 75-108 ATS (41%) since 2020. The money at DK is behind the Yellow Jackets too, and when a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 177-156-2 ATS (53.2%). Under head coach Brent Key, Georgia Tech has been a great underdog and is currently on a 9-1 ATS (90%) run in the last 10 as a single-digit underdog in conference games

College Football Best Bet: Let’s go with Georgia Tech +7.5 on Saturday at Pitt

Illinois (-2.5) at Maryland

Maryland has had two weeks to stew over losing to Rutgers at home and extending its Big Ten losing streak to 12 games. Now, according to oddsmakers, they have a pretty good chance to upset an Illinois team that has won back-to-back games in league play and has been on a different level in recent years. Does the week off help the Terps in getting ready for this one? In most cases, you would think so, but Maryland is 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS (16.7%) in the last 12 post-bye week games.

At the same time, Illinois is 20-10 (66.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021. We also have a system in play describing that Big 10 road favorites of -4 or less have gone 30-13 SU and 27-16 ATS (62.8%) in conference play since 2021. If you’re looking at metrics, my Effective Play-by-play numbers show Illinois should be favored by 4.3 here, not 2.5. The recent Effective Play-by-play numbers suggest the line should be Illinois -6.7, a number quite similar to my Power Ratings (-6.8).

College Football Best Bet: It’s Illinois -2.5 at Maryland for me

Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (-5.5)

Appalachian State comes off the huge win over previously unbeaten James Madison but has been wildly inconsistent this season. That continues a trend from recent years, as the Mountaineers have struggled to string together long winning streaks. They have also struggled in this series, as Georgia Southern is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head matchups with App State. GSU has covered six of seven games this season and seems better than oddsmakers give credit for.

This figures to be a good spot, since Georgia Southern is 24-7 ATS (77.4%) as a home favorite since 2018. The money and bets at DK are backing the Panthers here too, as over 90% of the handle is on that side. That won’t be a concern at -5.5, when a 68%+ majority of the handle was on home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 97-77 ATS (55.7%). The raw stats, particularly my Effective Play-by-play ratings, also show GSU should be a double-digit favorite in both full-season and recent trend numbers.

College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Georgia Southern -5.5 to take down Appalachian State

Boston College (+7) at Duke

Duke has played in three consecutive very tight games, all decided by 4 points or less, including last week’s 19-16 win at Virginia. That puts the Blue Devils in a tough spot for this week against BC as home favorites off a small conference upset haven’t been good bets: Teams coming off outright conference upsets when a dog of +3 points or fewer are just 67-100 ATS (40.1%) when favored at home in the follow-up game. As it is, Boston College is 33-18 (64.7%) ATS in Conference games since 2020, and underdogs are 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in the last six of the BC-Duke set.

The fact that the Golden Eagles are playing their best football of the season, having won four straight ATS also needs to be given consideration here, as that is the longest such winning streak in the three-year head coach Bill O’Brien era. The Effective Play-by-play numbers, both in the full body of work and in the recent trend, also suggest this spread is a bit high. And the betting splits at DraftKings show 83% of the handle on Duke. Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on one side of an ATS wager, that majority group has gone just 652-718 ATS (47.6%). BC is playing well enough to be a live dog here; Duke is not playing well enough offensively to lay a lot of points.

College Football Best Bet: I got Boston College +7 at Duke

Minnesota at Indiana (Total 41.5)

I had an interesting conversation with my betting nephew last week, and he said he makes a list of teams that need to be considered for Unders on totals every week, regardless of who they play. Minnesota is one of those teams, and this week the Golden Gophers face one of the country’s most formidable defenses in Indiana. The Hoosiers hold teams 22.9 points below their effective averages. At the same time, Minnesota scores just 7 points more per game than their opponents effectively allow. The math on both of these models suggests we should not see more than 11 points from the Gophers on Saturday in Bloomington.

I try to make it a regular point to go against teams that are expected to score so few points. However, in this case, the Hoosiers’ offensive attack simply can’t be counted on to reach 30 after scoring just 48 over the last three games. Thus, the Under should be considered here. From a system standpoint, with UM having just won the big one over Iowa, teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are 88-50 Under the total (63.