Week 9 College Football Betting Trends:

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 9. This report emulates the process Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team use to handicap each week’s college football board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Higher-ranked home teams playing as single-digit favorites or underdogs against a worse-ranked opponent have gone 69-30 SU and 61-35-3 ATS (63.5%) since 2017.

System Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-3.5 vs Arizona)

* Teams coming off losses in which they were road dogs of less than 3 points are just 71-121 ATS (37%) in the follow-up game since 2018.

System Matches (FADE ALL): BAYLOR (+1.5 at UCF), WESTERN MICHIGAN (-13.5 vs Bowling Green), UNLV (-23.5 vs Northern Illinois)

* Teams that have won back-to-back conference games both SU and ATS while being defensively dominant (12 PPG allowed in those two games) have been tremendous when playing on the road in the next game, 60-35 ATS (63.2%) since 2019.

System Match (PLAY): LOUISIANA TECH (-5.5 at South Alabama)

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 32-50 ATS (39%) since 2010.

System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+10 vs Tulane), LA MONROE (+3.5 vs Southern Miss)

* GEORGIA SOUTHERN is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine matchups with App State

Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-5.5 vs Appalachian State)

* RUTGERS is 13-2 (86.7%) to the Over as a home underdog since 2021

Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MICHIGAN-RUTGERS (o/u at 46.5)

* UAB is 2-16-1 ATS (11.1%) in the last 19 following up a SU win

* SOUTH FLORIDA is 9-1 ATS (90%) in the last 10 post-bye week games

Trends Match (PLAY): SOUTH FLORIDA (-8.5 vs UAB)

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS: MINNESOTA-INDIANA OVER 41.5 (simulation has total at 46.9)

College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams

– In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 236-123 SU and 205-145-9 ATS (58.6%).

System Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-3.5 vs Arizona)

– Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 131-34 SU and 98-63-4 ATS (60.9%).

System Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-3.5 vs Arizona)

– Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 69-30 SU and 61-35-3 ATS (63.5%) since 2017.

System Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-3.5 vs Arizona)

CFB Ranked Team System #5: Unranked teams that favored over ranked teams in Power 4 conference games boast a record of 64-33 SU and 53-40-4 ATS (57%) dating back to November 2016.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): IOWA (-3.5 vs Wisconsin), OREGON (-3.5 vs Northwestern)

CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 368-29 SU but just 174-219-4 ATS (44.3%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015.

System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (-20.5 vs Minnesota), BYU (-16.5 vs Arizona St), TEXAS (-20.5 vs Mississippi State)

CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a Top 15-ranked team are 129-95 SU but just 98-125-1 ATS (43.9%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November 2016.

System Matches (FADE ALL): UCF (-1.5 vs Baylor), FLORIDA (+11.5 vs Georgia), MINNESOTA (+20.5 at Indiana), CINCINNATI (+6.5 vs Utah)

CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a home loss to a top-10-ranked team are just 145-152 SU and 132-163-2 ATS (44.7%) in their next game since October of 2016.

System Match (FADE): MICHIGAN (-14 at Rutgers)

CFB Ranked Team System #10: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 126-31 SU but just 65-88-4 ATS (42.5%) since December of 2015.

System Matches (FADE ALL): NOTRE DAME (-30.5 vs Navy), OLE MISS (-13.5 vs Auburn)

CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread are on a 235-55 SU and 167-120-3 ATS (58.2%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.

System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-20.5 vs Minnesota)

CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 68-30 SU and 57-40-1 ATS (58.8%) in the next game since November of 2021.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS TECH (-3.5 vs Arizona), MISSOURI (-10 at Arkansas)

CFB Ranked Team System #13: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 89-42 SU but just 57-72-2 ATS (44.2%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of 2015.

System Match (FADE): UCF (-1.5 vs Baylor)

CFB Ranked Team System #14: Teams still ranked even after losing as 7-point favorites or more are 78-38 SU but 46-68-2 ATS (40.4%) in the follow-up games. These teams are also 68-47-1 Under the total (59.1%) in these next contests since September of 2016.

System Matches (FADE ALL): NOTRE DAME (-30.5 vs Navy), TEXAS TECH (-3.5 vs Arizona), GEORGIA (-11.5 vs Florida), BYU (-16.5 vs Arizona State)

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOTRE DAME-NAVY (o/u at 56.5), TEXAS TECH-ARIZONA (o/u at 54.5), FLORIDA-GEORGIA (o/u at 55.5), ARIZONA ST-BYU (o/u at 48.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 75-106 SU and 77-101-3 ATS (43.3%) since September 2019. These teams are also 88-50 Under the total (63.8%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.

System Matches (FADE ALL): FLORIDA (+11.5 at Georgia), MINNESOTA (+20.5 at Indiana), CINCINNATI (+6.5 vs Utah)

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): FLORIDA-GEORGIA (o/u at 55.5), MINNESOTA-INDIANA (o/u at 41.5), UTAH-CINCINNATI (o/u at 56.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #16: Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 103-83 SU and 112-72-2 ATS (60.9%) dating back to November 2015.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+20.5 at Indiana), CINCINNATI (+6.5 vs Utah)

College Football Conference Play Systems and Trends

These detail top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 90-125 ATS (41.9%) since 2011.

System Matches (FADE): BAYLOR (+1.5 at UCF)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 153-129 ATS (54.3%) surge since 2010.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): UAB (+8.5 at South Florida), UTEP (+24.5 at North Dakota State), PURDUE (+7.5 at Penn State), WASHINGTON (+7.5 at Nebraska)

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 32-50 ATS (39%) since 2010.

System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+10 vs Tulane), LA MONROE (+3.5 vs Southern Miss)

* Conference home favorites coming off a double-digit conference loss are just 220-300 ATS (42.3%) since 2016

System Matches (FADE ALL): MISSOURI STATE (-6 vs Sam Houston State), TEXAS TECH (-3.5 vs Arizona), PITTSBURGH (-7.5 vs Georgia Tech), OREGON (-3.5 vs Northwestern), UNLV (-23.5 vs Northern Illinois)

* Teams playing in a home conference game after losing and yielding 48+ points to another conference rival the previous game are just 75-108 ATS (41%) since 2020

System Matches (FADE ALL): MISSOURI STATE (-6 vs Sam Houston State), PITTSBURGH (-7.5 vs Georgia Tech), SAN DIEGO STATE (-2.5 vs Washington State), COLORADO (+1.5 vs Kansas State)

* Teams playing as road underdogs in conference play after a game in which they turned the ball over 4+ times have been huge Under plays on totals, 130-89 (59.4%) since 2016.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WASHINGTON-NEBRASKA (o/u at 49.5), NORTHERN ILLINOIS-UNLV (o/u at 53.5)

* Big 10 road favorites of -4 or less have gone 30-13 SU and 27-16 ATS (62.8%) in conference play since 2021.

System Match (PLAY): ILLINOIS (-2.5 at Maryland)

* Big 10 home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of = 56 have gone Under the total at a 42-21 (66.7%) rate in conference play since 2017.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): MINNESOTA-INDIANA (o/u at 41.5)

* Under the total is 32-13-1 (71.1%) in ACC matchups with spreads >= 13 points and totals >= 60.5 since 2016.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): STANFORD-LOUISVILLE (spread LOU -22.5, o/u at 60.5)

* AAC favorites in the -7 to -12 line range have gone 120-19 SU and 77-56-6 ATS (57.9%) in conference play since 2015.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): TULANE (-10 at Charlotte), SOUTH FLORIDA (-8.5 vs UAB)

* Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 57-33-1 (63.3%) rate since 2015.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): TROY-JAMES MADISON (o/u at 49.5)

* Sun Belt small home favorites/pick ‘ems in the PK to -5.5 line range and totals within the 52.5-65 range have had these totals go Under at a 44-21 (67.7%) rate since 2015.

System Match (PLAY UNDER): APPALACHIAN STATE-GEORGIA SOUTHERN (spread GASO -5.5, o/u at 56.5)

* Sun Belt road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range are 72-30 SU and 61-41 ATS (59.8%) in conference play since 2015.

System Matches (PLAY ALL): LOUISIANA TECH (-5.5 at South Alabama), SOUTHERN MISS (-3.5 at LA Monroe)

* Under the total is 60-41-1 (59.4%) in Conference USA expected-tight matchups (-3 to +2.5 line range) since 2015.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DELAWARE-WESTERN KENTUCKY (spread WKU -1.5, o/u at 55.5), KENNESAW STATE-MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (spread MTSU -2.