Effective College Football Play-by-Play Ratings for Week 9:

Once again, I’m publishing the full list of Week 9 games in this week’s Effective Play-by-Play Ratings article, with both full-season and forecasted formats. After introducing the forecasted metrics last week, readers were interested in how they would fare. As it turned out, the full-season numbers performed much better. Is this a fluke? Too early to tell, but after an outstanding 34-22 ATS performance last week, the full-season model is 96-74 ATS (55.3%) over the past three weeks. That’s a solid return for a math model in college football betting. The forecasted model went 29-27 ATS last week.

I added the forecasted model to account for teams that started hot but have cooled off dramatically.

As a quick reminder, Effective Play-by-Play Ratings differ from my Effective Strength Ratings. Rather than simply gauging the end result, they evaluate a team’s performance across all scrimmage plays. Both models account for each team’s schedule to date.

Some prefer this approach to traditional power ratings based on scoring because the latter can be skewed by fluky plays, turnovers, fourth-down conversions, and other factors. Both methods have value, and combining different measures of team strength may be the best approach. Personally, I believe Effective Play-by-Play Ratings may offer a more accurate picture of team strength because they draw on a much larger data sample. That’s particularly useful in college football, where talent disparities between teams can be enormous.

All the strength ratings discussed here are adjusted for schedule strength, account for games that became noncompetitive late and include relevant injury adjustments.

As usual, the games are listed by the discrepancy between the full-season Effective Play-by-Play line and the actual line. The forecasted Effective Play-by-Play line can differ in both the favored team and the size of the disparity.

For a good example of recency bias diverging from the full-season numbers, look at Delaware-Western Kentucky, the first game of the week and the 34th on this list. The data suggests Western Kentucky has been clearly better lately, while the full-season numbers show the Blue Hens with a 4.6-point edge off the point spread for the 2026 season.

(113) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (114) NORTH TEXAS

Actual Line: NORTH TEXAS -13.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH TEXAS -36.8

Difference: 23.3 – Favors: NORTH TEXAS

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NORTH TEXAS -36

Difference: 22.5 – Favors: NORTH TEXAS

(193) MISSISSIPPI STATE at (194) TEXAS

Actual Line: TEXAS -21

Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS -5

Difference: 16 – Favors: MISSISSIPPI STATE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS -15.3

Difference: 5.7 – Favors: MISSISSIPPI STATE

(153) MINNESOTA at (154) INDIANA

Actual Line: INDIANA -20.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: INDIANA -35.9

Difference: 15.4 – Favors: INDIANA

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: INDIANA -37.8

Difference: 17.3 – Favors: INDIANA

(187) OREGON STATEATE at (188) FRESNO STATE

Actual Line: FRESNO STATE +5.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: FRESNO STATE +20.1

Difference: 14.6 – Favors: OREGON STATEATE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: FRESNO STATE +21.7

Difference: 16.2 – Favors: OREGON STATEATE

(151) VIRGINIA at (152) WAKE FOREST

Actual Line: WAKE FOREST -12.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: WAKE FOREST -26

Difference: 13.5 – Favors: WAKE FOREST

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: WAKE FOREST -32.1

Difference: 19.6 – Favors: WAKE FOREST

(177) CONNECTICUT at (178) AIR FORCE

Actual Line: AIR FORCE -2.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE +10.7

Difference: 13.2 – Favors: CONNECTICUT

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE +9.7

Difference: 12.2 – Favors: CONNECTICUT

(131) STANFORD at (132) LOUISVILLE

Actual Line: LOUISVILLE -22.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISVILLE -35.1

Difference: 12.6 – Favors: LOUISVILLE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: LOUISVILLE -36.6

Difference: 14.1 – Favors: LOUISVILLE

(189) OHIO STATE at (190) USC

Actual Line: USC +6.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: USC +17.5

Difference: 11 – Favors: OHIO STATE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: USC +14.5

Difference: 8 – Favors: OHIO STATE

(209) TEXAS STATE at (210) BOISE STATE

Actual Line: BOISE STATE -11.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: BOISE STATE -0.6

Difference: 10.9 – Favors: TEXAS STATE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: BOISE STATE -3.3

Difference: 8.3 – Favors: TEXAS STATE

(211) NORTHERN ILLINOIS at (212) UNLV

Actual Line: UNLV -23.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: UNLV -12.7

Difference: 10.8 – Favors: NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UNLV -13.8

Difference: 9.7 – Favors: NORTHERN ILLINOIS

(171) ARIZONA at (172) TEXAS TECH

Actual Line: TEXAS TECH -3.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS TECH +6.3

Difference: 9.8 – Favors: ARIZONA

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: TEXAS TECH +7

Difference: 10.5 – Favors: ARIZONA

(197) UTEP at (198) NORTH DAKOTA STATE

Actual Line: NORTH DAKOTA STATE -25.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: NORTH DAKOTA STATE -16

Difference: 9.5 – Favors: UTEP

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NORTH DAKOTA STATE -22.9

Difference: 2.6 – Favors: UTEP

(169) LOUISIANA TECH at (170) SOUTH ALABAMA

Actual Line: SOUTH ALABAMA +5.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH ALABAMA +14.9

Difference: 9.4 – Favors: LOUISIANA TECH

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH ALABAMA +12.7

Difference: 7.2 – Favors: LOUISIANA TECH

(205) COLORADO STATE at (206) UTAH STATE

Actual Line: UTAH STATE -6.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: UTAH STATE -15.8

Difference: 9.3 – Favors: UTAH STATE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UTAH STATE -18.5

Difference: 12 – Favors: UTAH STATE

(181) NEW MEXICO at (182) SAN JOSE STATE

Actual Line: SAN JOSE STATE +14.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: SAN JOSE STATE +6.2

Difference: 8.3 – Favors: SAN JOSE STATE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SAN JOSE STATE +7.5

Difference: 7 – Favors: SAN JOSE STATE

(179) KANSAS STATE at (180) COLORADO

Actual Line: COLORADO +2.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: COLORADO -5.8

Difference: 8.3 – Favors: COLORADO

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: COLORADO -13.6

Difference: 16.1 – Favors: COLORADO

(119) ARMY at (120) MEMPHIS

Actual Line: MEMPHIS -6

Effective Play-by-Play Line: MEMPHIS -14.1

Difference: 8.1 – Favors: MEMPHIS

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MEMPHIS -11.9

Difference: 5.9 – Favors: MEMPHIS

(185) NEVADA at (186) UCLA

Actual Line: UCLA -22.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: UCLA -29.6

Difference: 7.1 – Favors: UCLA

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UCLA -31.9

Difference: 9.4 – Favors: UCLA

(173) OKLAHOMA STATE at (174) IOWA STATE

Actual Line: IOWA STATE +8.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA STATE +15.4

Difference: 6.9 – Favors: OKLAHOMA STATE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: IOWA STATE +24.6

Difference: 16.1 – Favors: OKLAHOMA STATE

(163) MISSOURI at (164) ARKANSAS

Actual Line: ARKANSAS +10

Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS +16.7

Difference: 6.7 – Favors: MISSOURI

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS +19.3

Difference: 9.3 – Favors: MISSOURI

(143) UAB at (144) SOUTH FLORIDA

Actual Line: SOUTH FLORIDA -8.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH FLORIDA -2.2

Difference: 6.3 – Favors: UAB

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: SOUTH FLORIDA -2.9

Difference: 5.6 – Favors: UAB

(117) BAYLOR at (118) UCF

Actual Line: UCF -1.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: UCF -7.7

Difference: 6.2 – Favors: UCF

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: UCF -7.3

Difference: 5.8 – Favors: UCF

(159) NOTRE DAME at (160) NAVY

Actual Line: NAVY +30.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: NAVY +24.3

Difference: 6.2 – Favors: NAVY

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: NAVY +22

Difference: 8.5 – Favors: NAVY

(105) KENNESAW STATE at (106) MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

Actual Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -2.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +3.6

Difference: 6.1 – Favors: KENNESAW STATE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +9.3

Difference: 11.8 – Favors: KENNESAW STATE

(161) SOUTH CAROLINA at (162) OKLAHOMA

Actual Line: OKLAHOMA -5.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA +0.4

Difference: 5.9 – Favors: SOUTH CAROLINA

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: OKLAHOMA +3

Difference: 8.5 – Favors: SOUTH CAROLINA

(139) APPALACHIAN STATE at (140) GEORGIA SOUTHERN

Actual Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN -5.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN -11.4

Difference: 5.9 – Favors: GEORGIA SOUTHERN

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA SOUTHERN -15.8

Difference: 10.3 – Favors: GEORGIA SOUTHERN

(121) MARSHALL at (122) OLD DOMINION

Actual Line: OLD DOMINION +2.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLD DOMINION -3

Difference: 5.5 – Favors: OLD DOMINION

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: OLD DOMINION -0.5

Difference: 3 – Favors: OLD DOMINION

(165) COASTAL CAROLINA at (166) GEORGIA STATE

Actual Line: GEORGIA STATE -6.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA STATE -12

Difference: 5.5 – Favors: GEORGIA STATE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA STATE -21.3

Difference: 14.8 – Favors: GEORGIA STATE

(127) FLORIDA at (128) GEORGIA

Actual Line: GEORGIA -11.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA -16.9

Difference: 5.4 – Favors: GEORGIA

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA -20.1

Difference: 8.6 – Favors: GEORGIA

(157) CLEMSON at (158) FLORIDA STATE

Actual Line: FLORIDA STATE -6

Effective Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA STATE -11.1

Difference: 5.1 – Favors: FLORIDA STATE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: FLORIDA STATE -12.6

Difference: 6.6 – Favors: FLORIDA STATE

(129) TEMPLE at (130) EAST CAROLINA

Actual Line: EAST CAROLINA -6

Effective Play-by-Play Line: EAST CAROLINA -1.1

Difference: 4.9 – Favors: TEMPLE

Effective FORECASTED Play-by-Play Line: EAST CAROLINA +1.4

Difference: 7.4 – Favors: TEMPLE

(147) BOWLING GREEN at (148) WESTERN MICHIGAN

Actual Line: WESTERN MICHIGAN -13.5

Effective Play-by-Play Line: WESTERN MICHIGAN -18.3

Difference: 4.