Week 9 College Football Power Ratings
With the final weekend in October upon us, we’re at the “what you see is what you get” phase of the college football season in my opinion. More than enough time has passed for these teams to come together with a bunch of new faces. If a team is consistently inconsistent, that’s what they are. If a team is underachieving, that’s what they are. If a team is overachieving, that’s what they are.
Of course, there are some variables to keep in mind. Injuries, strength of schedule, and coaching changes – an important thing to bring up this week because NC State fired Dave Doeren and Baylor fired Dave Aranda. Sunday was a rough day to be a Dave. Those variables should be part of the handicap, but I don’t think we should be guessing any longer about the identity of these teams or what we can expect. Things might not always work out from a point spread standpoint, but the sample sizes are large enough to trust the numbers and the eye test isn’t going to lie or be all that misleading from here on out.
The schedule will still play a role with travel spots and letdowns and all of that. Some will be priced into the market. Some won’t be or maybe won’t be factored in enough. There will be some rest advantages thanks to bye weeks. It’s up to you to determine how much those things matter. Did BYU lose to UCF because of the long travel off of the biggest home game in program history? Or did the Cougars lose because they’re not actually a top-five team and a loss was coming? The answer is probably some of both and BYU won’t be the only example of those rhetorical questions moving forward.
But, my numbers are updated and my lines have been put together and now it’s time to see how they stack up with the betting market.
Week 9 College Football Power Ratings
Week 9 PR Adjustments
Up: Marshall +1.5, App State +2.5, UMass +3.5 (Watson return), Army +2.5, Wyoming +2.5, Stanford +1.5, Boston College +2.5, Rice +3, Syracuse +4.5 (Angeli return), Michigan +1.5, Western Michigan +1.5, Cincinnati +2.5, Miami (OH) +3, UCF +2.5, South Carolina +3, Northwestern +2.5, UL Monroe +2.5, Arkansas State +2.5, Wisconsin +2.5, Kansas +1.5, UTSA +2, Southern Miss +2, LSU +3, Oklahoma State +2.5, Utah +1.5, Nevada +2.5, North Texas +3, Louisiana Tech +4.5, Boise State +2.5, New Mexico +2, Colorado State +3 (Hejny return), Charlotte +2.5
Down: South Alabama -2.5, Sam Houston -2, James Madison -1.5, Air Force -2.5, NC State -3, TCU -2, Georgia Tech -3.5, North Carolina -2, Sacramento State -2, Indiana -1.5, Texas Tech -2.5, Troy -4, Georgia State -2, USC -3, Baylor -3, Northern Illinois -2.5, Louisiana -2.5, Oregon -4, Colorado -3, Michigan State -1.5, Kansas State -6 (Johnson inj.), Iowa State -2, Washington State -1.5, San Diego State -3, Utah -3, Ohio State -2, Tulane -2.5
Syracuse +4.5: Way different team with Steve Angeli at QB. Nice win over a UNC team that I’ve been impressed with lately
Louisiana Tech +4.5: Seems I’ve been sleeping a bit on this team, as they got a big bump.
UMass +3.5: His return didn’t really work out against UConn, but Pop Watson back in the lineup makes this a much better team
Kansas State -6: Whispers were on social media about Avery Johnson suffering a big injury in practice; after what we saw last week from Kansas State, any length of time without Johnson could cripple this offense
Troy -4: In the pantheon of bad losses, losing to UL Monroe is up there
Oregon -4: I struggled with this adjustment because Oregon pretty badly outgained Illinois and was the better team in a lot of respects, but this has quickly become a lost season
Georgia Tech -3.5: Methinks we underestimated how good of a player Haynes King truly was
My Week 9 College Football Lines
(note: games are ordered by rotation number)
Games to consider:
Utah -6.5 (-10) vs. Cincinnati: Tricky spot for both teams here, but at least it’s not a super early kick for Utah. I even downgraded them and still have an edge here; I’m still not very fond of Cincinnati
Western Michigan -14 (-22) vs. Bowling Green: Low total here, so I should probably adjust my spread down a bit, but I really, really think Bowling Green is awful
Kansas +6 (+2) at TCU: I haven’t had a great feel for TCU all season, but they’ve also been a different team week to week
Fresno State +7 (+3.5) vs. Oregon State: I think the market might have peaked on the Beavers
Washington State +3 (-4) vs. San Diego State: It’s been a super strange season for the Aztecs, but losing 56-49 to Colorado State isn’t a great look. I deserved better with Washington State last week, as they were 10-10 against Boise State through three quarters and lost by 21
I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.