Upstate New York Winter Heating Season Forecast
Thousands of National Grid employees work 24 hours a day, seven days a week to keep electricity moving and natural gas flowing through thousands of miles of pipes and wires each day across Upstate New York.
As winter approaches, National Grid is working to help customers manage energy costs and prepare for colder weather. The company’s current Upstate New York rate plan provides more than $290 million in discounts to help income-eligible and vulnerable customers manage their energy costs. In 2026, nearly 170,000 customers received almost $50 million in credits.
“Every day, our 11,000 employees work to deliver safe, reliable, and affordable energy to our 4.2 million customers. We know energy affordability is a primary concern for so many families and businesses we serve, and we encourage any customer who needs assistance to contact us to understand the options available to them," said National Grid New York President Matt Barnett. "National Grid remains committed to providing our customers with a range of support, including bill assistance programs, payment options, and energy efficiency solutions, especially in the winter months when market-based gas supply prices can be most volatile."
WINTER OUTLOOK
National Grid is providing customers with an early look at expected winter heating supply costs so they can plan ahead and take advantage of available assistance and energy-saving programs.
Based on forecasts available at the end of September and assuming typical winter weather conditions, a typical Upstate New York residential natural gas customer using 713 therms is expected to pay about nine dollars less this winter heating season — Nov. 1, 2026 through March 31, 2027 — as they did last winter.
Several factors influence winter energy bills, including weather, customer energy use and energy supply prices.
Importantly, a customer's bill contains two primary components:
• Supply charges reflect the cost of natural gas purchased in wholesale energy markets. These charges on customer bills are exactly what National Grid pays, without markup.
• Delivery charges cover the cost of maintaining and operating the energy network that safely delivers natural gas to homes and businesses. This includes a dedicated 24/7 workforce, maintenance and repairs, storm response, and system upgrades.
Expected changes in winter bills are driven largely by projected natural gas and electric supply costs and market conditions. Winter bill forecasts are estimates based on market information available at the end of September and assume normal winter weather. Individual bills will vary depending on temperatures, household energy use, and changing market conditions throughout the heating season.
Energy supply prices are determined by wholesale market conditions. National Grid does not produce natural gas, set wholesale prices, or profit from supply charges; the company passes those costs directly to customers without markup.
To help reduce price volatility, National Grid stores natural gas and secures a portion of its supply at fixed prices in advance.
According to a 2023 American Gas Association report, the annual residential energy bill for a typical single-family home using natural gas is approximately 53% lower than a comparable home using heating oil and 46% lower than a comparable home using propane.
In addition, according to a September 2026 American Gas Association Energy Affordability White Paper, households that use natural gas for heating, cooking and clothes drying save an average of $1,030 per year compared to homes relying on non-heat pump electric systems for those same energy needs, underscoring natural gas's role as an affordable heating option for customers.
For electric, the forecast for the typical Upstate New York National Grid customer is a total electric bill increase of between 3-5 percent ($22-$39) for the five-month period, depending on which region of the state you live.
CUSTOMER ASSISTANCE
Customers can take steps before winter arrives to better manage energy costs:
• Enroll in the Budget Plan to spread energy costs more evenly throughout the year.
• Explore available payment assistance and bill discount programs.
• Schedule a home energy assessment and complete recommended efficiency improvements.
• Review energy-saving tips and lower household energy use.
Customers who are having difficulty with affording their energy bills are encouraged to contact National Grid as soon as possible. There are several assistance programs for income-eligible customers, including:
• Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP): Provides grants to help eligible customers pay heating bills. Grants do not need to be repaid. Customers can contact their local department of social services to learn more and apply.
• Enhanced Energy Affordability Program: Provides a monthly bill credit to customers who do not qualify for HEAP and have a household income at or below the state median income.
• National Grid’s Energy Affordability Program: Provides monthly gas and electric bill credits for eligible customers, including many customers who qualify for HEAP.
• NYSERDA's EmPower+ New York Income-Eligible Free Weatherization Program: Offers eligible customers free home energy assessments and energy-saving improvements such as insulation, efficient lighting and appliance upgrades.
• National Grid Care & Share Energy Fund (to open in February 2027) Provides grants to help income-eligible National Grid customers pay heating bills. To qualify for a grant, you must be a National Grid customer whose household meets the income guidelines of the Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP).
Additionally, the utility’s Help Paying Your Bill page lists information about Consumer Advocates, payment plans, grants, monthly bill credits, extra time to pay and protections for customers with serious medical needs. Customers can also call National Grid at 1-800-642-4272. In 2026, National Grid Consumer Advocates attended more than 430 customer events and provided assistance to nearly 19,000 households across Upstate New York.
ENERGY SAVING TIPS
Heating a home is a significant energy cost and energy efficiency can lower bills while enhancing comfort. Simply put, when customers reduce energy usage, they save money. National Grid offers the following tips:
• For every 1 degree a thermostat is set back, customers may be able to save 1% to 3% on their annual heating costs.
• Turn down the thermostat every time you leave the house for two hours or more, and each night before you go to bed. It takes less energy to warm up a cool house than to maintain a warm temperature all day and night.
• Consider a smart thermostat as an inexpensive, easy way to maintain comfort and cut heating costs. When used properly, a smart thermostat can save 10% on heating and cooling costs annually by automating energy-saving adjustments you would otherwise make manually.
• Insulate the attic, walls, ceilings, and floors to prevent heat from escaping.
• Take advantage of the sun: Open drapes during the day to capture warmth and close them at night to prevent heat loss through windows.
• Seal holes and cracks where cold air can get in, especially in the attic and basement. Reducing drafts in a home may save 15% in heating and cooling costs annually.
• Remove window air conditioning units during the cold months to reduce drafts. If this is not possible, use foam insulation or weatherstripping to fill any gaps between the unit and the window frame. Cover the exterior of the window unit with waterproof, breathable AC cover designed to withstand winter conditions without trapping moisture.
• If you’re looking to replace an appliance, choose an energy efficient model and save anywhere from 10% to 50% in energy costs. For example, replacing a refrigerator that is older than 15 years with a more efficient refrigerator may save hundreds of dollars over the lifetime of the unit.
• Unplug electronic devices when they are not in use. While it may appear as if electronics are powered off, they may actually be in standby mode and still consuming electricity. Eliminating phantom electricity by unplugging home electronics can save up to 10% per year.
• Repairing or replacing leaky faucets can save $20 per month in lost water.
• A 100-watt incandescent bulb and 16.6-watt LED bulb each provide approximately 1,500 lumens of brightness. Replacing five incandescent bulbs with LEDs may save more than $11 a month. Lighting accounts for around 15%
of a home’s electricity use. The average household may save about $225 in energy costs per year by switching to LED lighting.
• Have your heating system serviced annually and never try to repair it yourself.
• If your heating system has a filter, clean or replace it every month during the heating season.
• Small business, commercial and industrial customers can take advantage of energy savings programs, including energy studies, and incentives to replace aging or inefficient equipment such as heat pumps, frequency drives, refrigeration and weatherization.
About National Grid
National Grid (NYSE: NGG) delivers electricity and natural gas to more than 20 million people across New York and Massachusetts. We’re committed to meeting our customers’ energy needs and supporting economic growth across the regions we serve—providing safe, reliable energy today and building the resilient networks of the future. National Grid Ventures, our commercial business, develops and operates infrastructure that delivers affordable and reliable energy to consumers. National Grid Partners, our venture capital and corporate innovation arm, invests in and collaborates with technology companies that are accelerating the future of energy and helping new technologies reach critical scale faster.
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